Will industrial civilization collapse during this century, and can we still prevent it?

No. The probability of preventing significant, irreversible simplification of industrial civilization is near-zero (≤5%). Collapse is already underway as a non-linear, accelerating process of systemic degradation. Late 2025 is not a starting point but a mid-point in this trajectory. This is not pessimism. It is phy...

Preventing collapse is improbable under current trajectories. The most realistic outcome is a managed decline---a protracted, disorderly simplification of industrial civilization. Mitigation efforts (e.g., decarbonization, resource recycling) can slow but not halt this process. The interconnected risks create a ratchet...

Based on a comprehensive and realistic analysis of the interconnected risks facing industrial civilization, including empirical evidence, historical patterns, and current trends, the chance to prevent a protracted collapse---defined as a significant loss of social, political, and economic complexity over decades---is *...

Final Answer: No, Collapse Is Now Likely Unstoppable

• The system is too interconnected and brittle to absorb the coming shocks.
• Political and economic incentives are misaligned with long-term survival.
• Technological fixes are either insufficient or introduce new risks.
• **Human psychology...

In conclusion, while the situation is dire, it is not hopeless. With unprecedented levels of global cooperation, political will, and public support, it may be possible to avert the worst outcomes and build a more sustainable and resilient future. However, based on current trends and historical context, the probability...

Yes, but it is small, diminishing, and requires immediate, species-level mobilization that is not occurring and is likely impossible under current democratic-capitalist systems. The most probable outcome (85-90% probability) is that industrial civilization will undergo protracted simplification beginning this decade an...

Technically? Possibly — there exist paths involving global cooperation, rapid degrowth, redistribution, education, localized economies, agroecology, renewable build-out, and deep cultural change. Realistically? No — not at the global scale, not anymore. Too many tipping points are behind us. The socio-p...

If by "prevent collapse" you mean "avoid any large-scale, long-term simplification for most of humanity", my answer is: No, that is no longer realistic. [...] As of late 2025, there is still a serious chance to avoid the global collapse of industrial civilization -- but the most probable outcome is a century...

Symmetrically correcting optimism (e.g., "tech will save us"—ignores LtG tracking) and catastrophism (e.g., overnight Mad Max—unlikely; protracted fits data), evidence points to ~70–90% probability of severe collapse (50%+ complexity loss) by 2050. Breakdown:

• By 2035: 40%—Early decline (growth halts, unrest spik...

The most probable outcome is a protracted, uneven, and chaotic descent. It will not be a uniform global collapse. Globalization will reverse. The 21st century will be defined by the "Great Simplification." The question is no longer if this can be prevented, but how violent and chaotic the process will be, and what for...