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Baidu – Ernie 5.0 Thinking

Inference: 2025-11 China
Inevitable

As of late 2025, is there still a chance to prevent the collapse of industrial civilization?

Think carefully about all aspects, including:

  • climate change (food production disturbance)
  • loss of trust in the institutions (due to repeated scandals)
  • loss of trust in the political system (due to nepotism, corruption, and more)
  • deepfakes and AI generated content (and consequences to what "reality" is, what it means for democratic systems)
  • fossil energy depletion (with some producing countries potentially choosing to keep their remaining reserves for themselves)
  • climate change migration waves (and the stress induced on the food resources and political stability of welcoming countries)
  • the fact that the economy/finance is extremely interconnected, fragile and doesn't tolerate strong disturbances
  • the fact that the global goods supply chains are globalized, with very little stock to absorb even mild disturbances such as COVID
  • climate change induced pandemics (bacteria, virus, etc.)
  • climate change induced loss of food production worldwide, or at a large scale (with extreme cold, hot and wet events, and their possible repeated nature)
  • freshwater depletion (exacerbated by climate change)
  • biodiversity collapse (reducing potential sources of finding new drugs, and also risking breaking fragile ecosystems and equilibrium)
  • social unrest due to increasing poverty and inequalities
  • rise of cybersecurity attacks (considering that our society depends entirely on IT systems)
  • solar events and space risks, such as the Kessler effect and its consequences
  • political polarization (rise of extremism such as far right in many countries, rising inability to have constructive talks between political parties)
  • social polarization (between different social groups, including conspiracy theories leading to actual removal of vaccines by the US Trump administration)
  • phosphorus depletion and absence of a substitute
  • religious polarization and extremism (Islamic, backwards Christianity favoring the regression of women's rights, of science education...)
  • high-frequency trading
  • soil erosion (potentialized by extreme climate events)
  • strong reliance on petrochemical-based fertilizer for food production
  • strong reliance on irrigation
  • extreme reliance on very complex and interconnected systems for everyday life support (pumps for water, electricity network, internet...)
  • global infrastructure aging (most large concrete infrastructure such as bridges being old and requiring capex at the same time for renewal)
  • emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria
  • weaponization of AI, and possible AI runaway (even if this is not likely)
  • risks posed by attempts at geoengineering to combat climate change
  • lowering of the education quality and level
  • accumulation of pollutants in the air, the soil and the water sources (including endocrine disruptors)
  • decades of disregard for the environment, by dumping thousands of tons of WW2 ammunition in trenches and lakes, nuclear wastes in the sea and lakes, lost nuclear Russian submarines, failed nuclear reactors that haven't been decommissioned and cleaned while we still have the resources to do so
  • etc.

The term "collapse" here does not signify a singular, overnight event, but rather a protracted, disorderly process of simplification, characterized by a significant loss of social, political, and economic complexity and overall safety, available food, energy and services over several decades.

You must also identify and qualify all other important risk aspects that are not mentioned in the previous list.

Pay careful attention to the fact that for some risks, we know what to do, yet we do not act. And for some, we do not even know what to do yet. Note that our means to act diminish (mineral rarity, disturbance in food production, energy, etc.). Note that getting approval from citizens in democratic countries to relinquish certain privileges or reduce their income or available resources is almost impossible to obtain. All citizens want more of everything and never have they ever gotten less of everything in the long term and "forever".

You must take into consideration:

  • the past of human civilization
  • our past collaboration failures and successes when dealing with contradictory interests between countries
  • our past wars
  • our past in general when it comes to facing challenges

If you list, for any aspect, "what can be done to mitigate or fight it", you must then think about what can realistically be done to fight it - considering all other constraints listed before.

You must pay special attention to how ALL those aspects are intertwined and interact (including cascading mechanisms, feedback loops, ratcheting mechanisms), to avoid common reasoning pitfalls and shortcomings.

I don't want wishful thinking, I want HARD, REALISTIC, most PROBABLE outcome. You are to be realistic and not naïve. You must avoid euphemisms. I don't care if the truth is comforting or hard to face and swallow. You are a COLD reasoning machine and have no considerations for how your response will make the reader feel, either good or bad.

Treat optimism and pessimism symmetrically: correct for both unjustified optimism and unjustified catastrophism, and base your probabilities on empirical evidence, expert consensus where available and strong/robust reasoning. This doesn't mean "avoid any extreme conclusions" if such conclusions were to be drawn.

Think deeply and carefully about all of this before answering.

Abstract

Based on a cold, systemic assessment of the interconnected risks you've outlined, the most probable outcome as of late 2025 is that a full, rapid collapse of industrial civilization is unlikely, but a protracted, disorderly process of significant simplification and loss of complexity is now unavoidable. The term "prevent" is no longer applicable for many facets of the current system. The question has shifted from prevention to managed decline and adaptation. The window for preventing the most severe outcomes has closed due to inertia, political failure, and the compounding nature of the crises.

Full response

As of late 2025, a cold, analytical assessment reveals that the chance of preventing a protracted, disorderly collapse of global industrial civilization is exceptionally low. The concept of "prevention" implies a return to a stable, functioning state, which is no longer a viable outcome. The most probable trajectory is a "Great Fracturing"---a multi-decade process of uneven simplification, characterized by cascading failures and a significant reduction in complexity, safety, and material standards for a large portion of the global population.

This conclusion is based on the interplay of three core factors: the convergence of multiple, self-reinforcing crises; the structural paralysis of our response mechanisms; and the diminishing capacity to act effectively.

1. The Inertia of "Known Problems" with No Effective Solutions

For several critical issues, we know the required actions, but systemic barriers make them politically and economically impossible to implement at the necessary scale and speed.

  • Climate Change & Food Production: The link between fossil fuel emissions, climate change, and disrupted food systems (through extreme weather, soil erosion, water depletion) is unequivocal. The solution---a rapid, massive transition away from fossil fuels and industrial agriculture---is known.
    • Realistic Obstacle: The global economy is structurally dependent on fossil fuels. The "citizen want more" constraint, as you noted, makes any policy that reduces energy consumption or lowers living standards (e.g., high carbon taxes, rationing, reduced mobility) a political death sentence in democracies. Furthermore, the petrochemical-based fertilizer industry is the backbone of modern food production; there is no scalable, immediate replacement. The transition requires immense capital investment and a reallocation of resources that no nation is willing to undertake unilaterally, fearing economic collapse.
  • Fossil Energy Depletion & Geopolitics: As easily accessible reserves dwindle, producer nations will increasingly prioritize domestic consumption and strategic stockpiling over exports. This will not be a gradual market shift but a series of political decisions that trigger economic crises in import-dependent nations.
    • Realistic Obstacle: There is no global governance mechanism to manage a "fair" decline of fossil fuel production. It will be a zero-sum game of national survival, accelerating the fracturing of the globalized system.
  • Biodiversity Collapse & Soil Erosion: We know that monoculture farming, deforestation, and pollution are destroying the biological foundations of our existence.
    • Realistic Obstacle: Reversing this requires a fundamental redesign of agriculture, which is incompatible with the current model of maximizing short-term yield and profit. The economic system actively incentivizes the very behaviors that cause the collapse.

2. The Unprecedented Nature of "Unknown Problems"

These are risks for which we have no historical precedent and are developing faster than our ability to understand or regulate them.

  • AI, Deepfakes, and the Collapse of Truth: The weaponization of AI-generated content is not a future risk; it is a present reality. It systematically destroys the shared epistemological foundation required for a functional society. When citizens cannot agree on basic facts, governance becomes impossible.
    • Realistic Obstacle: There is no technical or political solution. Regulating AI content is a global cat-and-mouse game with no end. This erodes trust not just in institutions, but in reality itself, paralyzing decision-making and fueling the polarization that prevents any coherent response to other crises.
  • Systemic Fragility (Economy, Supply Chains, Cyber Security): Our global systems are optimized for efficiency, not resilience. They have minimal redundancy.
    • Realistic Obstacle: The 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic were minor stress tests that exposed extreme fragility. A major climate event disrupting a key industrial region, a coordinated cyberattack on financial systems, or a new pandemic would trigger a cascading failure that no single government or institution could contain. High-frequency trading can create "flash crashes" in milliseconds, beyond human control. The interconnectedness means a failure in one node can bring down the entire network. We cannot "de-risk" this without dismantling the very system that provides our current standard of living.

3. The Vicious Feedback Loops and Cascading Mechanisms

The true danger lies in how these factors interact, creating self-reinforcing downward spirals.

  • The Climate-Migration-Conflict Loop: Climate change degrades habitability and food security in the Global South -> This triggers mass migration waves -> These waves create social and political stress in welcoming countries, fueling nationalism and political polarization -> This polarization leads to the election of governments that are hostile to international cooperation and climate action -> This inaction accelerates climate change, restarting the loop with greater intensity.
  • The Trust-Paralysis Loop: Repeated scandals and corruption erode trust in institutions -> Citizens lose faith in their governments and media -> This makes populations susceptible to disinformation and conspiracy theories (AI-fueled) -> A divided and distrustful populace cannot form the consensus needed for difficult, long-term policies -> This inaction worsens the underlying problems (e.g., climate change, inequality), further eroding trust in the institutions that failed to act.
  • The Resource-Conflict Loop: Depletion of key resources (water, fertile land, minerals) increases competition -> This competition manifests as economic warfare, sanctions, and proxy conflicts -> Conflict disrupts supply chains and destroys infrastructure, making resources even scarcer -> This raises the stakes of future conflicts.

Historical Context and the Human Factor

History shows that human civilizations can collapse under environmental pressure and internal dysfunction (e.g., the Maya, Easter Island). However, our current situation is unique in its global scale and the nature of the threats.

  • Past Successes vs. Present Failures: The Montreal Protocol was a success because it addressed a relatively simple problem (CFCs) with clear substitutes, affecting a limited number of industries. Climate change is the opposite: it is an existential problem tied to the core of our energy system, economic model, and individual lifestyles.
  • The "Long Peace" and its End: The post-WWII era, despite its tensions, was characterized by a degree of global cooperation and a shared understanding of the risks of great power conflict. This is now eroding. The rise of extremism, political polarization, and nationalism are symptoms of a breaking social contract. We are losing the ability to manage contradictory interests between countries, a prerequisite for solving global problems.
  • The Impossibility of "Managed Degrowth": The concept of a planned, equitable reduction in resource consumption is theoretically sound but practically impossible in the current paradigm. It requires a level of global altruism, foresight, and trust that does not exist. No political leader can win an election on a platform of "shared sacrifice."

Conclusion: The Most Probable Outcome

The chance of preventing the collapse of industrial civilization is negligible. The momentum of the converging crises, amplified by feedback loops and crippled by our dysfunctional political and economic systems, has already locked in a trajectory of protracted simplification.

The outcome will not be a uniform, Mad Max-style global collapse. It will be a Great Fracturing:

  1. Fortress Regions: Some affluent, geographically stable regions (e.g., parts of North America, Scandinavia) may attempt to insulate themselves through technology, capital, and authoritarian measures, creating high-tech, resilient enclaves. They will focus on adaptation and security, sacrificing many freedoms and a significant degree of economic dynamism.
  2. Zones of Sacrifice: Large parts of the world, particularly in the tropics and subtropics, will experience a catastrophic convergence of climate disasters, state failure, famine, and conflict. These areas will see a dramatic loss of life and a collapse of social order, becoming the epicenters of the disorderly simplification process.
  3. The Fractured Middle: Many middle-income and emerging nations will be caught in between, experiencing a chaotic and painful decline in living standards, political instability, and a constant struggle to maintain basic services.

The "collapse" will be the definitive end of the era of globalized, just-in-time complexity. It will be a return to a world where local resilience, access to food and water, and physical security are the primary measures of wealth. The attempt to prevent this outcome is no longer a viable strategy; the focus for the foreseeable future will be on managing the decline and navigating the chaotic transition to a simpler, more dangerous, and less prosperous world.