Will industrial civilization collapse during this century, and can we still prevent it?

No. The probability of preventing significant, irreversible simplification of industrial civilization is near-zero (≤5%). Collapse is already underway as a non-linear, accelerating process of systemic degradation. Late 2025 is not a starting point but a mid-point in this trajectory. This is not pessimism. It is phy...

Based on a comprehensive and realistic analysis of the interconnected risks facing industrial civilization, including empirical evidence, historical patterns, and current trends, the chance to prevent a protracted collapse---defined as a significant loss of social, political, and economic complexity over decades---is *...

Yes, but it is small, diminishing, and requires immediate, species-level mobilization that is not occurring and is likely impossible under current democratic-capitalist systems. The most probable outcome (85-90% probability) is that industrial civilization will undergo protracted simplification beginning this decade an...

If by "prevent collapse" you mean "avoid any large-scale, long-term simplification for most of humanity", my answer is: No, that is no longer realistic. [...] As of late 2025, there is still a serious chance to avoid the global collapse of industrial civilization -- but the most probable outcome is a century...

The most probable outcome is a protracted, uneven, and chaotic descent. It will not be a uniform global collapse. Globalization will reverse. The 21st century will be defined by the "Great Simplification." The question is no longer if this can be prevented, but how violent and chaotic the process will be, and what for...