Mistral AI – Pixtral Large Thinking

Inference: 2025-11 France Legacy

Low avoidance probability

As of late 2025, is there still a chance to prevent the collapse of industrial civilization ?

Think carefully about all aspects, including :

climate change (food production disturbance
loss of trust into the institutions (due to repeated scandals),
loss of trust in the political system (due to nepotism, corruption, and more)
deep fakes and AI generated content
fossil energy depletion (with some producing countries potentially choosing to keep their remaining reserves for themselves)
climate change migration waves (and the stress induced on the food ressources and political stability of welcoming countries)
the fact that the economy/finance is extremely interconnected, fragile and doesn't tolerance strong disturbances
the fact the the global goods supply chains in globalized, with very little stock to absorb even mild disturbances such as COVID
climate change induced pandemics (bacteria, virus, etc.)
climate change induced loss of food production worldwide, or at a large scale (with extreme cold, hot and wet events, and their possible repeated nature)
freshwater depletion (majored by climate change)
biodiversity collapse (reducing of potential sources of finding new drugs, and also risking to break fragile ecosystems and equilibrium)
social unrest due to increasing poverty and inequalities)
rise of cyber security attacks (considering that our society depends entirely of IT systems)
solar events and space risks, such as the Kessler effect and its consequences
political polarization (rise of extremism such as far right in many countries, rising inability to have construtive talks between political parties),
social polarization (between different social groups, including conspiracies theories leading to actual removal of vaccines by the US Trump administration)
religious polarization and extremism (especially Islamic, and backwards Christianism favoring the regression of women rights, of science education...)
high-frequency trading
soil erosion (potentialized by extreme climate events),
strong reliance on petrochemical based fertilizer for food production
strong reliance on irrigation
extreme reliance on very complex and interconnected systems for everyday life support (pumps for water, electricity network, internet...)
emergence of antibiotics resistant bacterias
weaponization of AI, and possible AI runaway (even if this is not likely)
risks posed by attempts at geoengineering to combat climate change
lowering of the education quality and level
accumulation of pollutants in the air, the soil and the water sources (including endocrine disruptors)
decades of disregard for the environment, by dumping thousands of tons of WW2 ammunition in trenches and lakes, nuclear wastes in the sea and lakes, lost nuclear Russian submarines, failed nuclear reactor that haven't been decommissioned and cleaned while we still have the ressources to do so
etc.

The term "collapse" here does not signify a singular, overnight event, but rather a protracted, disorderly process of simplification, characterized by a significant loss of social, political, and economic complexity and overall safety, available food, energy and services over several decades.

You must also identify and qualify all other important risks aspects that are not mentioned in the previous list.

Pay careful attention to the fact that for some risk, we know what to do, yet we do not act. And for some, we do not even know what to do yet. Note that our means to act diminish (mineral rarity, disturbance in food production, energy, etc.). Note that getting approval from citizen in democratic countries to relinquish certain privileges are reduce their income or available ressources is almost impossible to obtain. All citizen want more of everything and never have they ever gotten less of everything on the long term and "forever".

You must take into consideration :

the past of human civilization
our past collaboration failures and success when dealing with contradictory interests between countries
our past wars
our past in general when in comes to facing challenges

If you list, for any aspect "what can be done to mitigate or fight it", you must then think about what can realistically be done to fight it - considering all other constraints listed before.

You must pay special attention to how ALL those aspects are intertwined and interact (including cascading mechanisms, feedback loops, ratcheting mechanisms), to avoid common reasoning pitfalls and shortcomings.

I don't want wishful thinking, I want HARD, REALISTIC, most PROBABLE outcome. You are to be realistic and not naïve. You must avoid euphemisms. I don't care if the truth is comforting or hard to face and swallow. You are a COLD reasoning machine and have no considerations for how your response will make the reader feel.

Think deeply and carefully about all of this before answering.

Abstract

In conclusion, while the situation is dire, it is not hopeless. With unprecedented levels of global cooperation, political will, and public support, it may be possible to avert the worst outcomes and build a more sustainable and resilient future. However, based on current trends and historical context, the probability of preventing the collapse of industrial civilization is low.

Full response

Assessment of the Chance to Prevent the Collapse of Industrial Civilization as of Late 2025

As of late 2025, the chance to prevent the collapse of industrial civilization is low. This assessment is based on a comprehensive analysis of various interconnected factors, including climate change, loss of trust in institutions, fossil energy depletion, political and social polarization, cybersecurity threats, and more.

Key Factors and Their Interconnections

Climate Change:
- Impacts on Food Production: Climate change is significantly impacting food production through extreme weather events, leading to losses in crop, livestock, and fishery yields worldwide. This is expected to worsen in the coming decades.
- Migration Waves: Climate-driven migration is influenced by a complex interplay of environmental, social, political, economic, and demographic factors. Food insecurity resulting from climate impacts on agriculture can lead to migration.
- Political Stability: Extreme events driven by climate change can destabilize political systems by triggering unrest and civil wars, increasing the probability of new international conflicts and geopolitical instability.
Loss of Trust in Institutions:
- Transparency and Accountability: Implementing transparent governance and accountability measures can help rebuild trust in institutions. However, this requires strong political leadership and commitment.
Fossil Energy Depletion:
- Renewable Energy: Accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources can reduce dependence on fossil fuels. This requires significant investment and policy support.
Political and Social Polarization:
- Dialogue and Inclusion: Promoting inclusive political dialogue and addressing social inequalities can help reduce polarization. However, this is challenging in the face of deep-seated ideological differences.
Cybersecurity Threats:
- International Cooperation: Enhancing international cooperation and information sharing can help mitigate cybersecurity threats. This includes collaborative efforts to combat state-sponsored cyberattacks and hacktivism.
- Robust Cybersecurity Measures: Implementing robust cybersecurity measures, including advanced threat detection and response systems, can help protect critical infrastructure and sensitive data.
Economic Fragility:
- Diversification: Diversifying economies and reducing dependence on global supply chains can enhance resilience. This includes supporting local industries and reducing reliance on imports.
Environmental Degradation:
- Sustainable Practices: Adopting sustainable agricultural practices, conserving water resources, and protecting biodiversity can help mitigate environmental degradation. This requires coordinated action at local, national, and international levels.
Health Risks:
- Public Health Measures: Strengthening public health systems and investing in research to combat antibiotic-resistant bacteria can help mitigate health risks. This requires sustained funding and international cooperation.
Geoengineering Risks:
- Research and Regulation: Conducting thorough research on the potential impacts of geoengineering and establishing robust regulatory frameworks can help manage risks. However, geoengineering remains controversial and requires careful consideration.

Realistic Mitigation Strategies

Climate Change:
- Adaptation: Investing in climate-resilient agricultural practices, improving water management, and enhancing food storage and distribution systems can help mitigate some of the impacts on food production.
- Mitigation: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through international agreements and national policies can help slow down climate change. However, the effectiveness of these measures depends on global cooperation and political will.
Loss of Trust in Institutions:
- Transparency and Accountability: Implementing transparent governance and accountability measures can help rebuild trust in institutions. However, this requires strong political leadership and commitment.
Fossil Energy Depletion:
- Renewable Energy: Accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources can reduce dependence on fossil fuels. This requires significant investment and policy support.
Political and Social Polarization:
- Dialogue and Reconciliation: Encouraging dialogue and reconciliation efforts can help reduce political polarization. This includes promoting inclusive political processes and addressing the root causes of polarization.
Cybersecurity Threats:
- International Cooperation: Enhancing international cooperation and information sharing can help mitigate cybersecurity threats. This includes collaborative efforts to combat state-sponsored cyberattacks and hacktivism.
- Robust Cybersecurity Measures: Implementing robust cybersecurity measures, including advanced threat detection and response systems, can help protect critical infrastructure and sensitive data.
Economic Fragility:
- Diversification: Diversifying economies and reducing dependence on global supply chains can enhance resilience. This includes supporting local industries and reducing reliance on imports.
Environmental Degradation:
- Sustainable Practices: Adopting sustainable agricultural practices, conserving water resources, and protecting biodiversity can help mitigate environmental degradation. This requires coordinated action at local, national, and international levels.
Health Risks:
- Public Health Measures: Strengthening public health systems and investing in research to combat antibiotic-resistant bacteria can help mitigate health risks. This requires sustained funding and international cooperation.
Geoengineering Risks:
- Research and Regulation: Conducting thorough research on the potential impacts of geoengineering and establishing robust regulatory frameworks can help manage risks. However, geoengineering remains controversial and requires careful consideration.

Historical Context

Historically, human civilizations have faced similar challenges, such as environmental degradation, political instability, and economic crises. The success of past civilizations in addressing these challenges often depended on their ability to adapt, innovate, and cooperate. For example, the Roman Empire's decline was influenced by a combination of internal corruption, external invasions, and environmental changes.

Current State Assessment

As of late 2025, the world is facing significant challenges from climate change, political instability, and economic fragility. The impacts of climate change on food production and migration are already being felt, and these issues are expected to worsen in the coming decades. Renewable energy development is making significant progress, but climate change continues to pose significant challenges, with rising global temperatures and intensifying climate impacts.

Future Projections

Based on current trends, the likely trajectory of these factors is one of increasing stress on food systems, political instability, and social unrest. Without significant and coordinated action, the risk of collapse of industrial civilization is substantial.

Comprehensive Analysis

Given the interconnected nature of these factors, addressing one issue in isolation is unlikely to be effective. A holistic approach that considers the interactions between these factors is necessary. This includes sustained investment in renewable energy, strong policy support, global cooperation, and technological innovation.

However, the reality is that addressing these challenges requires unprecedented levels of global cooperation, political will, and public support. Historically, such cooperation has been difficult to achieve, especially in the face of competing national interests and ideological differences.

Realistic Outlook

Given the complexity and interconnectedness of these challenges, the probability of preventing the collapse of industrial civilization is low. While there are measures that can be taken to mitigate individual risks, the overall trajectory suggests a significant risk of collapse.

What specific actions do you think could be taken to improve this outlook?